The year 2018 will not go down as a year of double-digit returns, but a year which was full of market-moving events. One such event was the outcome of state elections held in November-December.
The popularity of PM Modi might be fading as feared by some analysts, but the big bull, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, said that it is very important for the country that Narendra Modi comes back as Prime Minister in 2019.
“The factors which are driving India’s growth are those which cannot be reversed and that’s why I said that it’s very important that Mr. Modi comes back as Prime Minister, and I would very much like that,” he said on the sidelines of an event in Mumbai.
Though he is optimistic about India’s growth story.
“Essentially, the doctrine of India is tolerance and it’s only tolerant society which can imbibe, which can change. So these factors that drive India’s growth cannot be reversed and therefore, India’s growth cannot be reversed,” Jhunjhunwala said on Wednesday.
Trends in the assembly elections of three key states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh put Congress in leading position in all three states. BJP was the ruling party in all three states. The results came as a surprise initially as the exit polls projected a closer contest.
The state election results have projected some loss of popularity for the Modi government, but some market veterans like Vijay Kedia is of the view that the govt should take a lesson from the loss and be more prepared for 2019 general elections.
“The popularity has been going down since past few quarters. Many people who had a blind love for the government have started raising their doubts,” Vijay Kedia, MD, Kedia Securities told Moneycontrol.
“Now coming to the question of 2019 election being tough for them. See, if you lose a county match before a world cup what would you do? Learn from your mistakes and play the game according to the pitch, and not according to your temperament. If you don’t learn any lesson then may God bless you!,” he added.
As we approach 2019 general elections, analysts are of the view that a full majority looks tough, but the possibility of a coalition government is likely and that would infuse volatility in market.
“Formation of an opposition alliance will be the key to watch after the state setback for BJP, as alliances can negatively impact BJP’s performance given fragmented votes and the “first-past-the-post” system in India,” UBS analysts said in a report.
Investors should use dips, if any, towards the general elections as a buying opportunity. There are plenty of stocks which are available at right valuations especially after the recent correction we saw in Indian markets.
Commenting on individual stocks, Jhunjhunwala said, “Titan, even today is India’s icon”. He further said that we always welcome investing in crisis because the crisis is also an opportunity. “Therefore, I was confident then, confident in-between and confident now.”
Ajay Bodke, CEO – PMS, Prabhudas Lilladher told Moneycontrol that it is darkest before dawn. Investors must use the current uncertainty to build portfolios with a medium-term perspective (3 to 5 years). Be overweight on BFSI, Autos and Capital goods
India Growth story:
A recent report from the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog expects Indian economy to grow at 9-10 percent by 2022-23, the government’s premier policy think-tank said in its report ‘Strategy for New India @ 75′.
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.1 percent in July-September, down from 8.2 percent in the previous quarter as high fuel prices, a sliding rupee and relatively weaker rural demand seem to have applied the brakes on the economy.
India’s growth story might have slowed, but remains to be on track to maintain its place as fastest growing economies in the world.
With regards to India’s growth story, Jhunjhunwala said, “We feel we can grow faster than we are, we can do much better. So that stops us recognizing what we have already achieved or are achieving.”